What if Artificial Intelligence is leveling off?
What would this mean for all the other IT buzzwords?
AI (Artificial Intelligence) improving AI at an exponential pace for decades? That now seems awfully unlikely.
The author of that piece reports that “a couple of years ago, the CEO of an AI company argued that AI had already reached its top for sound processing, was nearing it for image and video, and was only halfway up the curve for text”.
Earlier this week OpenAI released an update to their analysis from last year regarding how the computing power used by AI “has been increasing exponentially with a 3.4-month doubling time”.
This exponential growth in the need for computing power to train AI has happened almost exactly contemporaneously with the diminishment of the exponential growth of Moore’s Law. Throwing more money at the problem won’t help.
“It sounds a whole lot like we’re looking at AI/machine-learning progress leveling off, not long from now, and for the foreseeable future”.
If this is prediction is wrong, we are screwed
Unless, of course, we really, really quickly re-regulate how “artificial intelligence” is used. Otherwise, it’s much more surveillance, powerlessness and dehumanization of life than today, before we can even realize what is happening.
If it is right, business is screwed
5G, 6G, smart cities, billions of Internet of Things devices giving and taking from AI a reason to exist… basically almost everything the high-tech industry says it needs to grow, will not doable. Not at the desired costs, at least.
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